Round One: Back on Base In Time for the Playoffs!

Greetings, fellow football fans. As Bruce Willis (in his role as Colonel Devereaux) so famously said in "The Siege" (co starring Annette Benning and Denzel Washington), "I intend to finish this operation and be back on base in time for the Playoffs!" Amen, brother.

Now then, you might recall (and you can comb through the old posts in this blog to verify for yourself) that last year, besides a hiccup with the Giants, I gave you a lot of winners. Let's see if I can repeat.

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

NY Jets AT Cincinnatti Bengals (Bengals -2.5): I started to believe in Cincy after they beat the Steelers and Ravens twice. Some of my real degenerate buddies have been waiting for this weekend, to unload big time on whoever Cincy faces. They're cooling on that opinion now, however. I think they pictured it being the Ravens, or someone else...

Personally, stay away from this game. You almost have to feel like the Jets are the better team at this point, but do you really want a rookie quarterback, from southern California, in cold weather, on the road, in the playoffs?? Or do you want the Bengals, with 1 wideout right now?? If you held a gun to my head, I'd say take the Jets and the points, but I wouldn't feel good about it. Even saying that though, if some of these teams try, the Jets aren't even here right now.... I just have a bad feeling.

Philadelphia Eagles AT Dallas Cowboys (Cowboys -4): I love the Cowboys in this one. (Big surprise.) Seriously, I heard a great analogy this week: The Eagles are like the Phoenix Suns... when 3-pointers are going in, they look great. If not, they are very beatable. The Eagles don't run. They rely heavily on the deep ball. Their defense is built to play with a lead. The Cowboys Defense apparently can cover their wideouts. Their backup center has no hope whatsoever against the Dallas front four, which was made painfully obvious last week. Tony Romo is playing out of his mind. The new Texas Stadium (Cowboys Stadium??) will be rocking 100,000 strong... Take the 'Boys.

Sunday, January 10th, 2010

Baltimore Ravens AT New England Patriots (Patriots -3): I like the Patriots here. I know, Brady is probably waaaay more banged up than they're saying, Undrafted sensation Wes Welker is out... Patriots have been real tough at home this season. They're destroying people. Flacco, if anything, is regressing... I love the Pats in this spot. I also love the OVER 43 on this. Bill Belichek, the prince of the cut-off sleeve hoodie, is not averse to running up the score. He does not recoil in horror at the thought... and when Baltimore gets down 21 to nuthing, they'll start throwing...

Green Bay Packers AT Arizona Cardinals (Arizona -1): This line was -3, now it's minus 1. Hmmm. This game is a real enigma. A real enigma. Either one of these teams is capable of laying a turd at any moment. And, either team is capable of lighting it up. Packers played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. The easiest. Do you know who played the second easiest?? The Arizona Cardinals. Allegedly, from the pundit-ocracy out there, Ken Whisenhunt and the Cards are unhappy with how the Packers have played them. You may recall we clobbered them in a meaningless preseason game, and we clobbered them last week, in a meaningless game, where our starters played a long time, deep into the second half.

Let's back up a second. There's been a lot of talk about who was trying and who wasn't. My take, real quick. Cards, not trying. Not at all. Not for 1 second. And it showed. Eagles, trying, for a little while, and failing. Cincy, trying for a little while, then the towel was thrown in. Thus, I put some weight on Dallas's win last week, and no weight whatsoever on Green Bay's win.

Also, there are mathematical possibilities for the Packers to travel to Minnnnnysooo-taaah and meet the Vikings.... again. Again!!! Favre Hating Nation is putting on their tin-foil hats right now... Put that on the back burner, let it simmer for a second.

Anyways, I personally think this is a case where the error of recentcy (the thing that happened more recently) is taking hold. In the back of my mind, I love the Cards in this game. I love their playoff experience. I love that they have some veterans. I love that they're at home. Packers are young. And on the road.

Another X factor: Do you know who has the worst special teams in the National Football League?? Yes, your Green Bay Packers. Which I suspected all along. Now, when you're winning 24 to nothing, nobody cares if your field goal kicker misses a 30 yarder, or your punter is kicking 30 yards, net 9 after the return... Some of the big leads have really spackled right over that glaring hole.... Can that bite you on the tookus in the Playoffs?? It might. It might.

Another X factor is the Packers Offensive line. The barrage of holding penalties, false starts, and illegal formations could rise up and bite us on the behind....

I'm also slightly intrigued, I did read one pundit who thought officiating was the key. He felt the Packers secondary was continually using their hands, and that their wins and losses this season really depended on whether they were calling it or not. He feels that if they start calling PI on Tramon Williams continual arm-bars, Charles Woodson's continual late chucks, and so on, that this game will be over real quick.

On the other hand, I personally feel there is a tendency to "let them play" in the playoffs....

Thus, I would say, take the Cardinals, and be glad you only have to lay 1 point. Not so much the spread, but the real bet here is the OVER 47. Cards could score 47 themselves. Or lets say the Packers go up 10 to nothing, it turns into a deep southwest shootout and ends up 48-42... I could see that.

So, here you go:
Cowboys -4
Patriots -3
Patriots/Ravens OVER 43
Cardinals -1
Cardinals/Packers OVER 47

Enjoy!